Beijing is making inroads in North Africa

By Jonathan Fulton

Talk of China in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) rarely focuses on the latter, but Beijing has made significant gains in its recent outreach to the Maghreb. This was highlighted in September when the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) Ministerial Conference was hosted in Beijing, where China showcased the depth of its regional relations.

FOCAC was established in 2000 at the insistence of the African Union, which sought to increase and institutionalize China’s presence on the continent. The forum is held every three years, alternating between Beijing and an African capital city. FOCAC’s several sub-forums formalize cooperation across sectors like youth leadership, health, poverty reduction, and development, among others. Africa is always the first destination of the year for China’s foreign minister, a three-decade-old tradition. This year, Foreign Minister Wang Yi kicked off diplomacy with a visit to Egypt, Tunisia, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire from January 13-18. Beijing’s presence in Africa is such that journalist and professor Howard French has described it as “China’s second continent.”

Within FOCAC are nine Arab League member states—Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Somalia, Sudan, and Tunisia—meaning the forum has an impact in the Middle East as well. Interestingly, these FOCAC participants also have institutionalized multilateral engagement with China through the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF), which was established in 2002, following a framework similar to FOCAC’s. The most recent CASCF Senior Officials’ Meeting was held in Beijing on May 29. Several developments between China and North African participants were announced, and momentum has only increased since then.

At the CASCF meeting in May, China and Tunisia announced that they had established a strategic partnership. This Chinese diplomatic mechanism pledged to increase cooperation in areas of mutual interest without making any formal commitments beyond that. This type of partnership typically results in increased trade and contracting. Since the China-Tunisia relationship has never been especially significant—or strategic—there is much room to grow. For example, bilateral trade between the two countries in 2022 was relatively insignificant at just $3.94 billion, according to data from the International Monetary Fund’s Direction of Trade Statistics, with the bulk of that being $3.89 billion in Chinese exports. 

The American Enterprise Institute’s China Global Investment Tracker shows a similarly modest Chinese footprint, with only a single construction contract, worth $110 million, since 2005 and no investment. That Tunisia was deemed a strategic partner is puzzling. Iraq, for example, is also a strategic partner, and bilateral trade between Iraq and China in 2022 was valued at $52 billion. Since 2005, investment has totaled over $14 billion, while contracting has been worth $20 billion. Clearly, not all strategic partnerships are created equally, but conferring this status on Tunisia seems to indicate that Beijing wants a stronger diplomatic presence across North Africa.

Other developments at CASCF confirmed this. This year, Libya, which had seen little in the way of Chinese cooperation since Beijing had to evacuate 36,000 citizens in 2011, sent a delegation to participate in the first Libyan-Chinese Economic Forum, attended by eighty-four Chinese companies that were encouraged to return to Libya to help with reconstruction. Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, the head of Libya’s interim Government of National Unity, met with Foreign Minister Wang on the sidelines of this year’s CASCF, and the two discussed activating eighteen bilateral agreements, including facilitating the return of Chinese companies.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was one of the four heads of state at CASCF—his eighth visit to China since he took office in 2014. While in Beijing, Sisi held a summit with Xi Jinping to mark the ten-year anniversary of the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Egypt. The two declared 2024 the “China-Egypt year of partnership,” and discussed deeper cooperation in information and communications technology, artificial intelligence, renewable energy, food security, finance, and cultural exchanges. 

It would be easy to dismiss all of this as typical summitry, but since the CASCF, there has been serious momentum in China’s Maghreb relations in areas that indicate long-term regional ambitions. 

The bilateral relationship with Libya has also continued to expand. In June, Libya’s Economy and Trade Minister Mohamed al-Hwej announced that the Libyan-Chinese Joint Economic Chamber was being activated to “help build bridges and enhance investment communication between the two countries.” In August, Libyan official Badr al-Deen al-Toumi met with a delegation from China and described three priorities: cooperation with China on Belt and Road Initiative projects; the reactivation of contracts that were stopped due to conflict; and enhanced bilateral cooperation in renewables, infrastructure, industrial technology, and urban planning. Chinese companies have been invited to discuss infrastructure construction, with a delegation visiting al-Zawiya in August to pitch the development of a seaport. Given this momentum, it was unsurprising that during FOCAC, Libya became the most recent Arab country to announce a strategic partnership agreement with China.

Separately, Algeria has made inroads in economic and military cooperation with China. In August, the Chinese embassy in Algiers announced that three Chinese carmakers—JAC, Chery, and Geely—would be setting up factories in Algeria, producing cars for the domestic and African markets. The Chery factory’s capacity is projected to be 100,000 vehicles per year within three years, and the Geely factory is said to represent a $200 million investment that will be operational in 2026. On the military front, Algeria inducted Chinese YJ-12B anti-ship missiles in August, complementing the CX-1 ASCM cruise missiles it acquired from Beijing in 2018. It has since kicked the treads on Chinese VT-4 battle tanks, an action that “aligns with its broader strategy of incorporating various Chinese military assets into its defense arsenal.” 

Morocco has also seen substantial movement from China. There was a major infrastructure announcement in September, with China Railway Engineering signing a $350 million contract to develop a high-speed rail line between Kenitra and Marrakech. On the sidelines at FOCAC, a Chinese textile company, Sunrise, announced that it will invest $422 million to establish industrial complexes. Maghreb Agence Presse claimed the investment, projected to create 11,000 new jobs, will “revitalize the national textile sector.” It is in the auto industry where Morocco has been especially interesting, however.

In June, Gotion High Tech announced its plans to build an electric-vehicle (EV) battery gigafactory for $1.3 billion, an investment it says will eventually reach $6.5 billion. This came on the heels of several announcements in 2024 about Chinese EV battery factories in Morocco. Hailiang, Shinzoom, and BTR New Material Group have each announced plans to build plants near Tangiers, and CNGR Advanced Material has plans for one in Jorf Lasfar. CITIC Dicastal has established an aluminum alloy wheel manufacturing plant, the largest Chinese investment in Morocco. Taken together, Morocco’s goal of becoming a major EV producer, combined with its proximity to the European Union (EU) and its trade deals with the EU and the United States, make it an important location for Chinese EV firms to invest, potentially circumventing tariffs.    

Of the Maghreb countries, Egypt has been China’s most varied—and most important—partner. There has been an uptick in security-focused cooperation. In August, China and Egypt held a joint naval exercise in the Mediterranean Sea north of Alexandria, where they carried out training courses in communications coordination, formation maneuvering, and maritime replenishment positioning. Shortly after, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force sent eight planes to an air show in Egypt. In mid-September, China’s defense contractor ELINC signed a contract with Egypt’s Arab Organization for Industrialization to work with Egypt on manufacturing advanced defense systems. And, of course, there has been a wide range of economic and developmental bilateral cooperation. At FOCAC, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly was on hand for a billion-dollar signing ceremony for projects in the Suez Canal Economic Zone that involved manufacturing chemical products, food products, and energy components. On the sidelines, China announced it would inject $14 million into Egypt to invest in joint projects. Chinese forums are a godsend for a country with an economy like Egypt’s, which has appeared moribund at several points in recent years.

North Africa is frequently described as one of the least integrated regions in the world. However, when considering Chinese engagement across the Maghreb, it becomes clear how the seeds Beijing is planting today could result in intra-regional industrial chains and business clusters in the not-so-distant future.

This article was originally published here.

Jonathan Fulton is a nonresident senior fellow for Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and an association professor of political science at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi, UAE.