The issue of succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran is becoming more urgent as the threat of war grows and threats to the life of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei increase, compounded by the eighty-five-year-old’s declining health. Khamenei and his loyalists seek the assurance of a qualified successor, while his critics point to his inability to prevent or manage domestic and international crises. These conditions are too tumultuous for Khamenei to relinquish the reins easily. Still, the transition will be easier for him if his presumed candidate of choice—and son—fifty-five-year-old Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is selected, now that the death of President Ebrahim Raisi has removed him from the list of possible contenders.
Since the Islamic Revolution, Iran has faced many crises, but recent months have seen a significant escalation. Notable events include the Raisi’s death in a mysterious helicopter crash in May, the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh at President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration in June, two retaliatory attacks against Israel in April and October, a catastrophic explosion at a coal mine in September, and ongoing protests by various facets of Iranian society amid rising poverty. These incidents underscore the incompetence of Iran’s leadership, culminating in the assassination of Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Iran’s most important proxy, which has reinforced the regime’s uncertainty.
Reports of Israeli intelligence agency Mossad’s infiltration of the Islamic Republic’s strict intelligence and security infrastructure are challenging trusted systems that have ostensibly sustained the regime for forty-five years. The fear of an interloper sabotaging the revolution’s mission is concerning. Khamenei, who has already isolated himself for protection, has continuously narrowed his inner circle to include only a handful of his most trusted loyalists. Given these circumstances, his son Mojtaba is theoretically the only individual he can trust and influence as a future leader.
But the process is not a slam dunk—at least, it should not be presented as such. The exercise of selecting Khamenei’s successor has proven cumbersome and bureaucratic. The Assembly of Experts, directed by the ninety-three-year-old Movahedi Kermani, is tasked with selecting the next supreme leader in what is essentially a filtering process. The assembly comprises individuals approved by the Guardian Council, a body of members who have met various criteria and obtained the direct or indirect approval of the supreme leader before they were elected by the citizens in eight-year cycles. Although there is a strategy to distance the present leader from appointing his successor, Khamenei remains the de facto chief filtering officer.
With rumors circulating for years about the octogenarian’s declining health, many names have been floated as potential successors. The most famous among them have died, often under mysterious circumstances, including Raisi; Ahmad Khomeini, the son of the founder of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini; former President Ayatollah Ali Akbar Rafsanjani; Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, the former judiciary head. The only name that has gained traction is Mojtaba Khamenei, who, in essence, fits Khamenei’s vision for an Islamic Republic 2.0 made up of young and pious figures.
Though his voice is rarely heard, Mojtaba’s name is recognized widely in Iran and abroad and, thanks to repeated references, carries an aura of mystery. But to Iranians who have long been fighting for freedom, he is a familiar agent of repression, earning his credentials when he orchestrated the violent crackdown on 2009 protests following the elections that put hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in power for a second term. Mojtaba Khamenei’s combination of character, capacity, and proximity to the supreme leader has led pundits inside and outside Iran to bet on him more than any other contender.
But his silence was broken in what was described as an unprecedented event. On September 22, a poorly produced video message shared on Persian-language social media revealed Mojtaba’s voice to the world for the first time. He declared that he was discontinuing his virtual seminary classes for disciples abroad.
To Western audiences, the news of a teacher suspending classes would qualify as neither breaking news nor an event worthy of analysis. However, this message was consequential in the context of Iran’s system. Historically, ayatollahs don’t abandon their seminary duties unless they are too ill or about to receive a more significant responsibility. Since its inception, the Islamic Republic has only seen two leaders—Yousef Saanei and Abdolkarim Mousavi Ardebili—forced to abandon their instructional duties to serve in the government’s judicial system. For Mojtaba Khamenei, who is healthy and relatively young, the choice to suspend classes is more likely prompted by a significant new assignment than by concerns about his health.
Interestingly, Mojtaba, who has a fifteen-year teaching record, wasn’t even bestowed the title of ayatollah until almost two years ago when a short article casually mentioned that he ascended to the rank of ayatollah, in an announcement that included registration instructions for his seminary. The quiet announcement was a remarkable moment, granting Mojtaba Khamenei the most important constitutional prerequisite for the supreme leader role.
Such sudden ascents are rare, but not unprecedented. Following the death of Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, the Assembly of Experts faced a dilemma. It wanted to appoint Khamenei as the new leader but was held back by his lack of proper religious rank. To overcome the dilemma, the assembly bestowed Khamenei with the title ayatollah overnight, qualifying him to take the reins.
Although the quality of Mojtaba’s was poor and haphazard on the surface, the message was clear and calculated. He also noted that his “honorable father” was unaware of his decision. This move was designed to demonstrate a degree of independence and autonomy from his father and deflect potential allegations of nepotism. Nonetheless, hardliners and reformists are increasingly vocal about the potential hereditary succession model for supreme leadership.
In an atmosphere where loyalties are shaken, fear of Mossad agents looms large, and proxy commanders are swiftly eliminated, replacing seasoned leaders is increasingly daunting. Khamenei’s closest and most experienced acolytes are gone, and the pool of potential replacements appears inexperienced, disloyal, or even treasonous. It will be hard for Khamenei to trust anyone other than his kin.
Absent free and fair elections, the process of replacing the supreme leader will play out more as a balancing act than a concrete course. Those tasked with the harrowing job of replacing one living totalitarian leader with another will need to balance their legitimacy with the public while pleasing the current tyrant. On the other hand, Khamenei must allow the process to run its course while playing coy about his candidate of choice. The heir to the turban needs to build a base of supporters and pray for a miracle of legitimacy in a country caught in a stubborn spell of disasters. The uncertainty continues to be amplified by the rapidly changing course of events making Iran’s fate precarious.
This article was originally published here.
Marjan Keypour is a human rights advocate and advisory committee member of AC’s Iran Strategy Project.